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Economy

Fed Decision in September?

Yield

25 bps increase

88%

No change

14%

50+ bps increase

2%

25 bps decrease

1%

50+ bps decrease

1%

$4.5M Vol

Sep 17 @ 12:00AM

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Yield

0 (0 bps)

91%

1 (25 bps)

8%

2 (50 bps)

3%

3 (75 bps)

1%

4 (100 bps)

1%

5 (125 bps)

1%

6 (150 bps)

1%

7 (175 bps)

1%

8 (200 bps)

1%

9 (225 bps)

1%

10 (250 bps)

1%

11 (275 bps)

1%

12+ (300+ bps)

1%

$18.8M Vol

Jan 1, 2027 @ 5:00AM

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

Yield

↑ 5.5%

4%

↑ 5.25%

4%

↑ 5.0%

4%

↑ 4.75%

8%

↑ 4.5%

16%

↑ 4.25%

54.5%

↓ 3.25%

8%

↓ 3.0%

4%

↓ 2.75%

3%

↓ 2.5%

4%

↓ 2.25%

4%

↓ 2.0%

10.4%

↓ 1.75%

3%

↓ 1.5%

5%

↓ 1.25%

5%

↓ 1.0%

3%

↓ 0.75%

13.3%

↓ 0.5%

5%

↓ 0.25%

4%

↓ 0%

3%

$655K Vol

Dec 31 @ 12:00AM

Fed Decision in October?

Yield

25 bps increase

35%

50+ bps decrease

1%

No change

64%

25 bps decrease

3%

50+ bps increase

1%

$279K Vol

Oct 28 @ 11:59PM

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Yield

92%

8%

$6.4M Vol

Dec 9 @ 12:00AM

Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?

Yield

<-2.4%

14.5%

-2.4%– -1.6%

5%

-1.6%– -0.8%

5%

-0.8%–0.0%

24.8%

0.0%–0.8%

24.5%

0.8%–1.6%

13%

1.6%–2.4%

13%

2.4%–3.2%

4%

3.2%–4.0%

5%

4.0%+

3%

$9,287 Vol

Nov 16 @ 12:00AM

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

Yield

0 (0 bps)

7%

1 (25 bps)

51%

2 (50 bps)

31%

3 (75 bps)

7%

4 (100 bps)

1%

5+ (125+ bps)

3%

$7,516 Vol

Jan 1, 2027 @ 4:59AM

Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?

Yield

December 31, 2026

3%

June 30, 2027

10%

$149K Vol

Jun 30, 2027 @ 11:59PM

Fed rate hike by...?

Yield

September Meeting

89%

October Meeting

92%

$13,001 Vol

Nov 5 @ 4:59AM

Bank of Japan Decision in September?

Yield

25 bps increase

99%

50+ bps increase

3%

50+ bps decrease

2%

No change

2%

25 bps decrease

2%

$4,378 Vol

Sep 18 @ 3:59PM

Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)

Yield

Other

91.9%

Pause–Pause–Pause

11.4%

Pause–Pause–Cut

3%

Pause–Cut–Cut

1%

Pause–Cut–Pause

1%

$2,553 Vol

Oct 28 @ 11:59PM

Bank of England decision in September?

Yield

No change

95%

50+ bps decrease

2%

25 bps increase

6%

25 bps decrease

1%

50+ bps increase

2%

$5,282 Vol

Sep 17 @ 11:59PM

Fed Decision in January?

Yield

50+ bps decrease

6%

25 bps decrease

9%

No change

0.2%

25 bps increase

24%

50+ bps increase

4%

$647 Vol

Jan 27, 2027 @ 11:59PM

Fed Decision in December?

Yield

50+ bps decrease

4%

25 bps decrease

5%

No change

35%

25 bps increase

60%

50+ bps increase

4%

$2,115 Vol

Dec 9 @ 11:59PM

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

Yield

5%

95%

$12,314 Vol

Jan 1, 2027 @ 5:00AM

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Yield

3.9%

6%

3.8%

7%

3.7%

7%

3.6%

5%

3.5%

4%

3.0%

3%

2.0%

5%

1.0%

3%

$99,344 Vol

Jan 1, 2027 @ 12:00AM