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Economy

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Yield

0 (0 bps)

89%

1 (25 bps)

9%

2 (50 bps)

4%

3 (75 bps)

1%

4 (100 bps)

1%

5 (125 bps)

1%

6 (150 bps)

1%

7 (175 bps)

1%

8 (200 bps)

1%

9 (225 bps)

1%

10 (250 bps)

1%

11 (275 bps)

1%

12+ (300+ bps)

1%

$17.8M Vol

Jan 1, 2027 @ 5:00AM

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

Yield

↑ 5.5%

5%

↑ 5.25%

5%

↑ 5.0%

4%

↑ 4.75%

8%

↑ 4.5%

10.8%

↑ 4.25%

22%

↓ 3.25%

13%

↓ 3.0%

4%

↓ 2.75%

4%

↓ 2.5%

4%

↓ 2.25%

4%

↓ 2.0%

12.1%

↓ 1.75%

4%

↓ 1.5%

4%

↓ 1.25%

5%

↓ 1.0%

3%

↓ 0.75%

14.4%

↓ 0.5%

5%

↓ 0.25%

5%

↓ 0%

3%

$638K Vol

Dec 31 @ 12:00AM

Fed rate hike by...?

Yield

September Meeting

55%

October Meeting

65%

$5,050 Vol

Nov 5 @ 4:59AM

Fed Decision in October?

Yield

25 bps increase

27%

50+ bps decrease

2%

No change

70%

25 bps decrease

4%

50+ bps increase

1%

$237K Vol

Oct 28 @ 11:59PM

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Yield

3.9%

10%

3.8%

10%

3.7%

4%

3.6%

—%

3.5%

—%

3.0%

—%

2.0%

—%

1.0%

4%

$97,377 Vol

Jan 1, 2027 @ 12:00AM

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Yield

70%

30%

$6.3M Vol

Dec 9 @ 12:00AM

Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?

Yield

<-2.4%

5%

-2.4%– -1.6%

—%

-1.6%– -0.8%

6%

-0.8%–0.0%

27.8%

0.0%–0.8%

24%

0.8%–1.6%

13%

1.6%–2.4%

5%

2.4%–3.2%

4%

3.2%–4.0%

5%

4.0%+

4%

$108 Vol

Nov 16 @ 12:00AM

Largest Company end of September?

Yield

NVIDIA

92%

Apple

7%

Alphabet

3%

SpaceX

2%

Amazon

2%

Microsoft

2%

Broadcom

2%

Saudi Aramco

2%

Tesla

2%

$0 Vol

Sep 30 @ 11:59PM

2nd Largest Company end of September?

Yield

Apple

87%

Alphabet

8%

NVIDIA

8%

SpaceX

2%

Broadcom

2%

Amazon

2%

Saudi Aramco

2%

Tesla

2%

Microsoft

2%

$0 Vol

Sep 30 @ 11:59PM

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

Yield

4.8%

96%

5.0%

—%

5.2%

—%

5.5%

—%

5.7%

—%

6.0%

5%

$120 Vol

Jan 1, 2027 @ 12:00AM

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

Yield

0 (0 bps)

28%

1 (25 bps)

41%

2 (50 bps)

28%

3 (75 bps)

4%

4 (100 bps)

4%

5+ (125+ bps)

4%

$2,616 Vol

Jan 1, 2027 @ 4:59AM

Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?

Yield

December 31, 2026

3%

June 30, 2027

9%

$146K Vol

Jun 30, 2027 @ 11:59PM

Fed Decision in September?

Yield

50+ bps decrease

1%

25 bps decrease

1%

No change

46%

25 bps increase

54%

50+ bps increase

1%

$1.1M Vol

Sep 16 @ 12:00AM

Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)

Yield

Pause–Pause–Pause

46%

Pause–Pause–Cut

2%

Other

48%

$4,293 Vol

Sep 17 @ 12:00AM

August Unemployment Rate

Yield

≤3.8%

2%

3.9%

3%

4.0%

16%

4.1%

35%

4.2%

34%

4.3%

13%

4.4%

3%

4.5%

3%

≥4.6%

2%

$12.04 Vol

Sep 4 @ 12:30PM

Bank of Japan Decision in September?

Yield

25 bps increase

99%

50+ bps increase

3%

50+ bps decrease

2%

No change

2%

25 bps decrease

2%

$4,180 Vol

Sep 18 @ 3:59PM