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Economy

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Closing DateAny Time

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How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Yield

0 (0 bps)

99%

1 (25 bps)

2%

2 (50 bps)

1%

3 (75 bps)

1%

4 (100 bps)

1%

5 (125 bps)

1%

6 (150 bps)

1%

7 (175 bps)

1%

8 (200 bps)

1%

9 (225 bps)

1%

10 (250 bps)

1%

11 (275 bps)

1%

12+ (300+ bps)

1%

$25.1M Vol

Jan 1, 2027 @ 5:00AM

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

Yield

↑ 5.5%

0.2%

↑ 5.25%

9.8%

↑ 5.0%

3%

↑ 4.75%

4%

↑ 4.5%

49.9%

↑ 4.25%

87.7%

↓ 3.25%

2%

↓ 3.0%

3%

↓ 2.75%

3%

↓ 2.5%

2%

↓ 2.25%

4%

↓ 2.0%

12.1%

↓ 1.75%

5%

↓ 1.5%

44.6%

↓ 1.25%

4%

↓ 1.0%

3%

↓ 0.75%

12%

↓ 0.5%

13.7%

↓ 0.25%

6%

↓ 0%

3%

$671K Vol

Dec 31 @ 12:00AM

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

Yield

Pause-Pause-Hike

5%

Pause-Pause-Pause

5%

Pause-Hike-Hike

56%

Pause-Hike-Pause

40%

Other

1%

$3,189 Vol

Jan 27, 2027 @ 11:59PM

Fed rate cut by...?

Yield

December 2026 Meeting

3%

January 2027 Meeting

12%

March 2027 Meeting

8%

April 2027 Meeting

—%

June 2027 Meeting

99.9%

July 2027 Meeting

10%

$854 Vol

Aug 8, 2027 @ 3:59AM

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Yield

Hike–Pause–Hike

98%

Hike–Pause–Pause

2%

Other

2%

$128K Vol

Dec 9 @ 11:59PM

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

Yield

≤1.0%

—%

1.25

—%

1.5%

79.9%

1.75%

—%

2.0%

—%

2.25%

—%

2.5%

—%

2.75%

—%

3.0%

—%

3.25%

—%

3.5%

—%

3.75%

—%

4.0%

—%

4.25%

0.3%

≥ 4.5%

0.3%

$504 Vol

Jan 1, 2027 @ 4:59AM

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

Yield

1 (25 bps)

4%

2 (50 bps)

90%

3 (75 bps)

7%

4 (100 bps)

1%

5+ (125+ bps)

1%

$28,008 Vol

Jan 1, 2027 @ 4:59AM

Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?

Yield

December 31, 2026

1%

June 30, 2027

5%

$162K Vol

Jun 30, 2027 @ 11:59PM

Fed Decision in December?

Yield

50+ bps decrease

1%

25 bps decrease

1%

No change

2%

25 bps increase

89%

50+ bps increase

10%

$396K Vol

Dec 9 @ 11:59PM

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

Yield

2%

98%

$73,158 Vol

Jan 1, 2027 @ 5:00AM

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

Yield

96%

4%

$11,022 Vol

Dec 9 @ 12:00AM